Third year wide receiver Geronimo Allison has a great opportunity this year, especially in fantasy football- as any wide receiver who has a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback in Aaron Rodgers always has a chance to be fantasy relevant. With Jordy Nelson leaving Green Bay, a lot of targets have left the team- even with Jimmy Graham coming into the mix, there will be a gap that needs to be filled.
The hype around the Packers taking some wide receivers in the draft has over-shadowed the potential for Geronimo Allison to make a step up. Allison’s fantasy value has plummeted as a result and he finds himself only really being drafted in 14 man PPR leagues (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) and even then its right at the end of drafts. But is there value in selecting a player who at best will most likely be a WR3 in that offense? Let’s dive in.
Green Bay’s offense
The main question that is going to dominate the outlook of Allison is if there is an opportunity for him to get the targets to be relevant on your fantasy roster. While there has been a coaching change at OC, the familiar offense of McCarthy and Rodgers are present- so we can expect the offense to be similar to previous years.
That being said there are a lot of questions coming into this year with such a mainstay of the offense disappearing in Jordy Nelson. With that infamous Rodgers-Jordy connection disappearing and a dynamic Jimmy Graham coming in, we have very little data to determine if there is a great share of targets, or if they would be a new main target. The only indication we have is the 2015 season where Jordy was injured. In that season the stats were:
|Player||Target||Rec’s||Yards||TD’s||Target Share %|
The numbers above show that there is room for a third passing option to be fantasy relevant if the situation replicates that of 2015. Without his safety net, it looks as though Rodgers is happy to share the targets out- albeit that it isn’t a very large sample size.
Relationship with Rodgers
One of the largest barriers to a wide receiver being fantasy relevant is if their quarterback is even likely to give them the opportunity to be successful. In the last 4 weeks of the season in 2017 he was given the opportunity when he saw 11% of the total targets in the offense (18 targets over the 4 weeks). The interesting thing to note though is that he was given his largest share in the game he played with Aaron Rodgers (@ Carolina) where he received 18% of the targets, behind only Randall Cobb.
Why he could succeed
When drafting a wide receiver there are a few things that you want to see; Talent and opportunity. Any player that operates with a quarterback on the level that Green Bay has, will likely showcase their talent and he will put the team in a position to do what you can do to the best of their abilities. The question comes with the opportunity.
He knows the playbook in Green Bay and with Jordy Nelson out of the offence there is clearly a hole at wide out given that the team didn’t really address the position in the early rounds of the draft. Until they get an opportunity to prove themselves, there is a path for for a player to step up, a path for Allison in particular to potentially be that guy.
Why he could fail
There are unknowns going into any season, but in Green Bay there was significant movement. Jimmy Graham should limit the red zone upside that Allison could have, and whenever you put a cap on a players touchdown upside it can lead to significant question marks around his value. Combined with the fact that he hasn’t played many games, the trends in his play aren’t ‘set’ and while we have indication that he is going to see his usage increase we could see the team instead use a rotation of wide outs for different routes to be run. It is also worth monitoring the influx of new rookie receivers from the draft at training camp. With the likes of Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all vying for a place on the starting roster for week one in Lambeau, the training camp battle at wide receiver will be mouth watering to see who makes the leap.
What do I think?
Allison is a wide receiver who clearly has talent and plays for one of the best offenses in the league. Given his current ADP, I would feel confident taking him right at the back of a draft and seeing how the snap counts pan out over the first few weeks. The Pack have some interesting match-ups leading into their week 7 bye and you’ll know by then if he is going to be given the opportunity to succeed. If either Adams or Cobb miss some time too, then you have a potential ‘no brainer’ flex play, with plenty of upside. on your hands that you picked up for incredible value.
If he doesn’t have the opportunity then you can cut him without too much loss and move on. I’m certainly going to be targeting him as a deep sleeper in the leagues I play in.
By Richard King – @ExcelGeek
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