@DumpsterDiveFF’s Way Too Early Rankings – by Phillip Caldwell

*Recent Update 6/26/18

Here is my first installment of WAY too early rankings for 2018 Fantasy Football.
A quick explanation of how these projections and ranking are calculated;

I take players historical stats for up to five years for their average stats like catch percentage, Yards per carry, etc.

Then I also take team stats for the last five years, to find out on average how many targets get distributed to each position, yardage, etc.

Then I also find what the overall average each for each position. For example, the catch percentage for all receivers I have stated out. I use these positional averages for use in trying to calculate rookies production.

Once all of that data is entered, I take my best shot at predicting each teams depth chart and what percent of the positional workload they are going to receive. The workbook does the rest of the work for me, including calculating end of year stats, total Standard & PPR fantasy points and ranking each position.

This model does assume a healthy, full 16 game season. But these are really meant to be used for draft prep, and at that point we should assume health, and not draft expecting an injury.

It also removes biases, beyond my projections of workload. The rest of the numbers are based on the teams tendencies and the players production.

And now, without further ado…phil1

Phil2

Phil3

Phil4

Make sure you check back next week for my stat projection breakdown for every team in the NFL and see how my rankings accumulated!

By Phillip Caldwell – @DumpsterDiveFF

 

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