This is the time where a savvy dynasty or keeper league fantasy football player can shine – that space in between free agency and the draft, when you can make moves while your league mates are still waking up from their offseason naps. To get the most value during this time of the year, you have to capitalize on low-cost/high-reward players that have slipped from people’s minds or left a bad taste in the owners mouths from 2017. I have four prime candidates that you can buy for pennies on the dollar right now.
KENNY STILLS (WR, MIAMI DOLPHINS)
Stills wasn’t able to match his 2016 touchdown total or per target yardage efficiency, but his volume was up, leading to the second-best total yardage numbers of his career (847). Over the last three seasons, Stills has clearly been the second-best option behind Jarvis Landry in the receiving game, despite the annual DeVante Parker hype-train.
The hype train seems to already be in full effect again for 2018. Despite Stills having more receiving yards, more TDs, and a huge edge in efficiency (41 to -7.2 in receiving fantasy points over expectation), Parker is No. 89 in ADP as the 33rd receiver off the board. Stills, on the other hand, sits at 148/60. Although it wasn’t a breakout year, the RotoViz Air Yards Screener (rotoviz.com/air-yards) for 2017 shows how Stills led the receiving corps in Miami in air yards and average depth of target (aDOT), while also out-producing Parker for targets and PPR points.
With Landry out the door, his 143 targets per year are up for grabs. To play the slot, Miami brought in the oft-injured Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson. While Wilson received a surprisingly large contract and could also see time outside, neither of these two players poses a serious risk to Stills’ workload. Wilson has never received over 60 targets in a single season, and the last time Amendola received 100-plus targets it was 2012 and he played for the Rams in a city that no longer has football. I expect Landry’s targets to get spread around among Stills, Parker, and then Amendola/Wilson, in that order. Some trades for Stills on the Dynasty Trade Finder (http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/tradedb/) include Peyton Barber, who averaged 6.8 rush attempts-per-game and under four yards-per-attempt last year.
Or a third-round 2018 rookie pick.
JEREMY HILL (RB, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS)
Call me crazy, but rolling the dice on Hill as he joins New England is worth the risk. Last season no running back in New England had more than six total rushing touchdowns. That RB happened to be Dion Lewis who has moved on to Tennessee to mess everything up for us Derrick Henry owners. Next was a tie at five between Mike Gillislee, who scored four of those five in the first two weeks, and then was off the radar again until Week 15, and Rex Burkhead, who didn’t find the end zone until Week 11.
Hill’s 2017 was atrocious. 116 yards and he never found the end zone in seven games played. But with 30 total TDs in his first three seasons in the NFL, he ranks as having the 10th-most TDs among RBs from 2014-2017, and his 0.043 touchdown-per-carry is the eighth best among RBs with at least 400 carries over that time span. All of this takes into account his goose egg last year.
Now Hill joins the Patriots, who scored the second-most points per game in 2017 and hosted LeGarrette Blount during his career year of 2016 when he rushed for the most yards (1,161) and TDs of his career (18).1 It should surprise no one if Hill stumbles into double-digit touchdowns with the Patriots in 2018.
Some trades for Hill include a third-round 2018 rookie pick, a fourth-round rookie pick, or even 34-year-old Brandon Marshall, who only played in five games last season. Hill is one of three runners we’ve designated as Free RBs With Serious Sleeper Potential – http://rotoviz.com/2018/03/3-free-rbs-with-sleeper-potential/.
For the Rest of this article check out RotoViz – home of Next Level Fantasy Tools and Analysis at http://rotoviz.com/2018/03/offseason-buy-low-candidates-for-dynasty-keeper-leagues/ And follow Phillip Caldwell on Twitter @DumpsterDiveFF