FANTASY IN FOCUS: Allen Robinson’s ADP Battle!

As I look through fantasyfootballcalculator.com, I find myself drawn to the particularly low ranking of Allen Robinson. I can certainly understand why the fantasy community are reluctant to draft the former top 5 point producing wide-out after a disappointing 2016 season.

However, knocking him down to current ADP #41 (WR19) in PPR formats seems a little extreme for a player who has proven before he can produce stud-worthy statistics.

arobinson
(Photo Credit: The Florida Times-Union/Will Dickey)

I wanted to match him up against other receivers currently in his current range, previous stats, past fantasy production and then dive a bit deeper into what went wrong for Robinson in 2016 and what might change in order for him to be more fantasy efficient once again this season.

 

Current ADP

Tyreek Hill Allen Robinson Davante Adams
ADP PPR 39 41 42
WR PPR 18 19 20
ADP Standard 40 45 44
WR Standard 17 20 19

 

Previous Seasons Stats

Hill Robinson Adams
Years Active 1 3 3
Targets 83 383 281
Rec 61 201 163
Yards 593 2831 1926
Yards Per Season 593 944 642
Yards Per Rec 9.7 14.1 11.8
Catch % 73.5% 53.7% 53.4%
Touchdowns 6 22 16
TD’s Per Season 6 7.33 5.33

 

Past Fantasy Performance

Hill Robinson Adams
Role Within Team WR1 WR1 WR2
2015 PPR Points (Rank) N/A 319 (6th) 104.30 (64th)
2015 Standard Points (Rank) N/A 224 (4th) 54 (68th)
2016 PPR Points (Rank) 199 (25th) 199 (24th) 247 (9th)
2016 Standard Points (Rank) 138 (15th) 126 (28th) 172 (7th)

 

Despite Hill, Robinson and Adams being different types of receivers with different roles in their offenses, all I care about is how many fantasy points they will be contributing to my team.

TyreekHill
(Photo Credit: AP Photo/Aaron M. Sprecher)

Although Hill is the main receiver in Kansas, Alex Smith hasn’t really ever produced a top fantasy receiver. In fact, only one receiver in Smith’s career has made it into the WR2/Top 24 range in PPR fantasy scoring. That was Jeremy Maclin for Kansas City in 2015. Also, don’t forget in 2014 he threw zero TD’s to wide receivers. If you draft Tyreek Hill at his current ADP, you are drafting his ceiling.

I also have my doubts with Davante Adams. I know he is a part of one of the most dynamic and threatening offences in the league. I am also aware he has one of the best QB’s of the modern generation throwing him the rock and that he had a very productive season in 2016. But it is a crowded offense; there are a lot of mouths to feed.

Recently acquired Martellus Bennett will see his fair share of redzone opportunities and don’t discount a bounce back campaign for former top 10 wide-out Randall Cobb. I believe last year’s impressive 12 touchdown total was an outlier and expect to see a more even split between pass catchers at Lambeau.

Adams
(Photo Credit: USA Today Sports/Jeff Hanisch)

So, for me, Robinson is the best value in this particular tier of receivers. In my opinion, ARob is still a thing.

However, let’s address that gnarly 2015 campaign. It was one that brought hope in Jacksonville, a young talented QB running the show, accompanied by youthful, hungry receivers who had just delivered a very productive season.

But, for Allen Robinson, pretty much everything dropped, not just the catches. Yards per reception down 5.4 yards to 12.1, TD’s down by 8, yards per game only 55.2 as oppose to the season before (87.5) and catch percentage down 4.7%. In fact, the only thing that stayed about the same was the targets, matching 2015’s 151 total.

So what caused the issue and why do I feel like he is a better bounce back candidate than others this season?

Although easy to lay the woes of 2016 solely upon Blake Bortles shoulders, there were different factors to take into consideration too. There was distinct change in play calling and game flow to start with.

Despite losing more games last season than in 2015, the Jags were involved in tighter games and weren’t locked into passing plays and garbage time like they found themselves doing in the previous year.

Things were stale in Jacksonville. It wasn’t until Greg Olson was relieved of his job at offensive coordinator and replaced by former O-Line coach Nathanial Hackett in week 7 that we saw a change.

Immediately after this, Bortles and the rest of the offence started to tick. But it still wasn’t enough.

What didn’t help was who they faced down the stretch. Famed secondaries in Houston (twice), Kansas, Denver and an upcoming defence in Tennessee certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons and put an immediate halt to any improvements that may have been noticeable since the re-shuffle in week 7.

Alas, Coach Gus Bradley’s time was nigh and the writing was on the wall. But this is one of the reasons to be buoyant about Robinson for the upcoming season. Former Offensive line coach Doug Marrone has now taken the reigns as Head Coach and is re-united with Hackett reprising the roles they both had in Buffalo together in 2014. Don’t forget that season ended in a successful 9-7 for the Bills and only narrowly missing out on the playoffs; but getting the best so far out of potential superstar Sammy Watkins in his rookie year.

I expect to see an upgrade this season to the passing production too, as their schedule is not nearly as hard this year against opposing secondaries.

So it’s starting to take shape for Robinson. A breath of much needed fresh air at the EverBank field where a change in philosophy with the new regime keen to exploit the explosive talent of the former Penn State wide-out.

After all, there is plenty to love about his raw talent. He’s in the 90th-percentile in catch radius and 86th-percentile in burst score. He has good hands, great speed and can be physically demanding so there is certainly not an issue with his talent.

I expect Jacksonville to still be playing from behind at times this season, so the opportunity is still going to be there for Robinson, but ultimately his success will still be largely dependent on an improvement from his QB.

I love the fact you can get him in drafts in the fourth round and snag yourself a receiver with top 5 potential. In fact, the last couple of mocks I have done I’ve managed to pick him up as late as the fifth. The upside for ARob is colossal; we have all seen what he is capable of.

Scratch 2016 off as a bad year and put your trust in his ability to have a monstrous bounce back campaign.

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